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此博客所有文章均为闫跃龙的个人观点,与《通讯世界》和其他单位无关。欢迎与我联系,共同探讨。我的邮件:yanyuelong#gmail.com, 个人网站是:http://www.yanyuelong.com

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电信业变得越来越无聊  

2008-01-31 14:42:22|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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今天看到美国的一个教授写的文章:电信业正在变得越来越无聊吗?
 
很有感触。
 
如果说作者认为美国电信业越来越无聊,那么我们中国人还有什么话可说呢?对比美国电信业的双寡头垄断,中国是中国移动一家独大;对比美国广电颇具竞争力,中国广电是扶不起来的阿斗;对比国外厂商愈发低的利润率,中国厂商干脆是将低价当作核心竞争力……
 
中国电信业正在变得更无聊。
 

附录:

Has telecom becomeboring?

Industry settles into a combination ofmonopoly and duopoly statuses

 

by A. Michael Noll (Special toTelecommunications)

 

After nearly a decade and a half of turmoil, telecommunicationhas become boring.

电信业变得越来越无聊 - 闫跃龙 - 闫跃龙的博客

The Bell breakup of 1984 was followed by years of tumultuousacquisitions and divestitures until today the major two survivorsare AT&T (fomerly SBC) and Verizon. They do not compete witheach other in their landline businesses, but appear indeed tocompete in their cellular wireless businesses. The CATV operatorsdo compete with AT&T and Verizon in the landline arena, therebycreating a duopoly.

 
The telecommunications industryhas thus settled into something of a combination of monopoly andduopoly statuses with no new entrants. Technology, too seems tohave stagnated. There is fiber, wireless, and the Internet — andnothing new and exciting on the horizon. Although there should bepublic debate about the separation of content from carriage, thegovernment just does not seem interested in telecommunication —perhaps being bored by the topic too. And with boredom consumingtelecommunication, investors and the media have lost muchinterest.
 

Future uncertainty seems to have finally vanished —telecommunication has become boring. All the fun of speculatingabout who will marry whom or will divorce next just isn’t thereany more.

 

About the only possible future fun is wondering whether AT&Tand Verizon will merge together — or will acquire a CATV operator.But the fate of these two Bell giants and the CATV operators justdoes not seem that exciting or entertaining as did all the deedsand misdeeds of the past dysfunctional Bell family.

 

The future and fate of telecom manufacturing has become muchmore interesting and less boring than the telecom service sector —what with all the continued bad news and uncertainties as to who —if anyone — will survive the profit squeezes. The global mergersof the past seem to have soured — and who will survive is purespeculation. But since all the money is in the provision oftelecommunication service, who really cares about the fate ofmanufacturing? It too is boring.

 

I’m glad I retired. I guess I too have become boring.

 

A. Michael Noll is Professor Emeritus of Communications atthe Annenberg School for Communication at the University ofSouthern California and a frequent contributor toTelecommunications. His newest book, The Evolution of Media, ispublished by Rowman & Littlefield.

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